The economy is recovering and exports were expected to rise by about 10.5 per cent this year over 2009, Ath Phisalvanich, director of the International Trade Study Centre at the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce, said on Thursday.

Mr Ath's export growth projection was based on the results of an analysis on "Direction, Problems and Obstacles of the International Trade Sector of Thailand in 2010".

"It would be a significant improvement from the expected export contraction of about 15.1 per cent in 2009," the director said.

He predicted exports of about US$166.9 billion, while imports would be about US$149 billion, an increase of 14.4 per cent from last year. This would deliver a trade surplus of US$17 billion, and a current account surplus of US$18.4 billion.

The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) would have a positive effect on the export sector as members of ASEAN were now a major market for Thai products.

Mr Ath warned of risk factors that could hurt exports -- the devaluation of Vietnam's dong, the fluctuation of exchange rates, increasing oil prices, the Dubai financial crisis and political uncertainty.