Bangkok Expressway Plc (BECL), the SET-listed expressway operator, is optimistic about its performance this year despite the slow economy, projecting toll revenue to increase 5.42% to exceed 7 billion baht. Managing director Payao Marittanaporn said 2009 would mark a major turnaround for BECL's business, which last year experienced the first-ever drop in expressway traffic by 6% or 60,000 trips to an average of 924,670 daily.

Toll revenue also dipped 4.15% or 800,000 baht from a year earlier to an average of 19 million baht per day.

''This year we expect to see relatively flat traffic at about 920,000 trips a day but toll revenue is projected to rise by 5.42%,'' she said yesterday. ''The increase is quite substantial compared to our average growth of 2-3% annually in the past.''

The major reasons for the decline last year were high oil prices, which peaked at $147 a barrel in July before plunging in the second half, and the opening of the Southern Ring Road as about 40,000 daily expressway commuters switched to the free loop that runs from Dao Khanong to Samut Prakan.

Meanwhile, the five-baht increase of BECL expressway toll fees in November resulted in a decrease of 3% in traffic, Mrs Payao said.

But January figures showed improvement with toll revenue rising 6.7% year-on-year to 20.1 million baht daily. Traffic was still down but at a decelerating rate of less than 3% from the same period of 2008.

The economic slowdown and the increase in toll fees would prevent BECL traffic from growing this year, said Mrs Payao, despite the anticipation that up to 15,000 commuters would return to its expressways after the Southern Ring Road operator starts collecting tolls in March.

She declined to comment on the company's fourth quarter earnings and full-year results of 2008 pending their release to the Stock Exchange of Thailand on Feb 25. However, she insisted that net profit of last year was unlikely to be lower than the 1.4 billion baht posted in 2007.

The bottom line would be further improved this year from 2008, she said, citing the expected decrease by 60 million baht in total expenses this year.

The forecast is in line with analysts' estimates. Kim Eng Securities anticipates BECL revenue to rise 5% this year to 7.34 billion baht from an estimated 6.95 billion in 2008. Net profit is targeted at 1.54 billion baht, up from 1.27 billion in 2008.

Mrs Payao said BECL might consider issuing debentures worth 3.5 billion baht this year or next year to cash in on low interest rates, as it sees the opportunity to raise cheap funds to maintain strong liquidity.

''We are in no rush to raise liquidity because we already have reserved one billion baht in cash from last year in case of any emergency this year,'' she said, adding that 2009 would be tough for all businesses to forecast.

''The January figures are encouraging for us but we still don't know what is going to happen in the rest of the year to the economy. If exports fall sharply and a very large number of people lose jobs, that would ultimately affect expressway traffic.''

BECL shares closed yesterday on the Stock Exchange of Thailand at 16.40 baht, up 30 satang, in trade worth 36.68 million baht.